CBB Bets (3/22)

CBB Betting Card for March Madness (3/22)

We’re coming off of a great day with our bets. They went 3-1, and 2-0 on this article. I have three more bets for today as we look for teams to get into the Sweet 16. You can get all three by joining my DubClub since there needs to be extra value for subscribers!

Before we get started, I wanted to let you know that you can get ALL of my bets and player props via my DubClub. I’ll give y’all 25% off because you’re subbed to my Newsletter.

Get ALL of my CBB bets, player props, and brackets for March Madness here!

Purdue -6.5 (-102 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)

This is the perfect sell-high spot on McNeese State.

I’m sure people are going to feel a certain way about this because I also bet Clemson ML live during that game. Realistically, they had a shot to win while playing the worst game of their season. It was also insane that Viktor Lakhin got a technical [and “ejected” (fouled out on his fifth)] for quite literally nothing.

Okay, I’m done complaining about that. What I’m trying to say is that Clemson played quite literally their worst game of the season and lost by 2 points. It was a very winnable game if their entire team didn’t struggle.

We took Purdue in the first round because of their ability to dominate lesser competition. McNeese State isn’t a bad team by any stretch, but they are lesser competition. There are levels to college basketball, and McNeese is a level below Purdue.

Both of these teams force their opponents to shoot from deep. Although McNeese has two good shooters, they don’t have the same type of shooters as Purdue. Dj Richards is outstanding, but he’s truly the only player you need to legitimately worry about from beyond the arc.

On the other side, Fletcher Loyer is one of the best shooters in the NCAA. Braden Smith is also outstanding, and both of these players shoot efficiently on volume. CJ Cox and Camden Heide are both shooting 37.5% or better on the season, but they haven’t seen as much volume. Myles Colvin and Gicarri Harris are the two players you don’t want shooting, but they can hit threes on occasion.

Ultimately, if this game turns into a three-point contest, which it could, Purdue is going to have a massive edge.

Another aspect is that both teams are willing to foul. Once again, Purdue has the slight edge here. I don’t believe this is nearly as massive of an edge as the deep ball, but if it comes down to it, Purdue should find a few more “free points” than McNeese.

The final aspect that I want to point out is McNeese’s ability to create turnovers. They thrive on live-ball steals, which often turn into easy buckets in transition. McNeese isn’t going to get those in this game, though.

Braden Smith is an elite ball-handler and Purdue just doesn’t turn the ball over in general. They’re a veteran team, and I believe it’s going to be clear that McNeese State wasn’t a roster constructed to face a team like Purdue.

Texas A&M -2.5 (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)

I’ve been dying to be able to fade Michigan, and this is the spot. Texas A&M projects as an atrocious matchup for them for a few reasons. Let’s break it down.

When you have two good teams, it’s almost impossible for one to make up a drastic amount of extra possessions.

Texas A&M and Michigan are both loose with the ball, although Michigan ranks near the bottom of the NCAA in turnover rate. More importantly, Texas A&M is elite at creating turnovers, while Michigan struggles in that aspect. The Aggies are going to be able to create both live-ball turnovers and non-steal turnovers throughout this game.

Texas A&M is also arguably the best rebounding team in the NCAA. They rank first with a ridiculous 41.7% offensive rebounding rate. They also don’t give up offensive boards on the other side. Although Michigan does have the ability to find offensive rebounds themselves, they struggle with allowing them.

There are two very, very clear situations where Texas A&M is going to get extra possessions. These are also two of the easiest ways to find points.

Finally, the last aspect that favors Texas A&M is how each team scores and allows their opponents to score. The Aggies aren’t a great offense, but they can score in a variety of ways because of the way their rotation is built. Michigan allows their opponents to have a more spread-out scoring attack, which will favor A&M.

On the other side, Texas A&M plays a very distinct style of defense. They force their opponents to shoot from deep, but they will also foul. These are two areas Michigan struggles with. The Wolverines shot 30.7% from deep in conference play. They’re also only shooting 72.3% at the line.

I’ve been looking for a way to fade Michigan, and a 2.5-point spread allows me to do that here. I do have some concerns that the Wolverines always seem to pull out the win in close games, but there are only so many times a team can do that. Texas A&M advances to the Sweet 16 here.