CBB Bets (Play-In Games)
CBB Betting Card for March Madness' Play-In Games
We’re officially entering March Madness, and I have a couple of bets for the play-ins game. We have two 16-seed and two 12-seed play-in games. There are a couple of bets that I believe have value at the moment.
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UNC -4.5 (-104 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
I want to preface this by saying that I’m a North Carolina fan. It isn’t a secret. I’m also not betting on this because I’m a fan. I believe there is actual value here, and I’ll explain why below. I just want everyone to be clear on this end.
North Carolina is a grossly undervalued team. There was too much talk about them not getting into the tournament, but the metrics fully show that they are easily a tournament team. Even with the seventh-best non-conference strength of schedule, they rank 33rd in adjusted efficiency on KenPom this season. San Diego State also had a very difficult schedule, although it was slightly worse. They rank behind UNC at 46th.
This matchup just plays out well for UNC compared to SDSU.
First, we can look at turnovers. North Carolina doesn’t create a ton of turnovers, but there could be some available with San Diego State being an average team in that aspect. On the other side, SDSU does force turnovers, but UNC has several ball-handlers to combat that. I’d give a small edge to San Diego State here, but it isn’t nearly as big as it would be against other teams. Essentially, North Carolina more-or-less negates San Diego State’s biggest edge.
Second, we can shift to rebounding. San Diego State is getting Magoon Gwath back, but he isn’t truly an elite rebounder. He’s outstanding on the offensive glass, but it won’t be a major help. These two teams have nearly identical offensive rebounding rates, but UNC’s offensive rebounding rate allowed sits 3.8% lower than SDSUs.
Ven-Allen Lubin will be the best rebounder on the floor, and his ascension late in the season has been a major reason UNC is on the hot streak they’re on. Jalen Washington will also be the best rebounder on the floor when Lubin is resting. Furthermore, you could make a case that Jae’Lyn Withers could be the next best rebounder on the floor at any given time. There’s a chance that North Carolina has the three best rebounders in this game, although I would only say they certainly have the two best (Lubin - Washington).
Last, and arguably the most important, we’ll discuss scoring. There are two ways to score against San Diego State - at the line and from beyond the arc. North Carolina is a reasonable free-throw shooting team. They have several players who can draw fouls and two players (Trimble & Davis) who are nearly automatic from the line.
Overall, they’ve seen mixed results from beyond the arc. They have several players who can make the deep ball, though. RJ Davis, Jae’Lyn Withers, Drake Powell, and Ian Jackson are all shooting 34.5% or better from deep. Seth Trimble and Cade Tyson haven’t found success on three-pointers this season, but they’re also historically elite shooters. It’s also important to note that UNC was one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NCAA late in the season.
On the other side, North Carolina has a “spread out” defense. They don’t foul all that often, and they force you to beat them with twos and threes. San Diego State isn’t a team that will force contact, and they struggle quite a bit to shoot the ball. They aren’t a team that is going to blow you away with three-pointers, and they aren’t overly efficient at the rim.
To break down SDSU’s scoring, they are at their best when shooting from two-point range. They’re relatively average in that area, though. That’s only where they find the most success because they rank 228th in the country in 3P% and 334th in FT%. In other words, this isn’t an offensive team, and we can see that by them breaking 80 points only 5 times this season.
San Diego State can get away with their offensive woes because of their defense. They steal possessions, but North Carolina should have the ball handlers to limit that. UNC should also be able to steal extra possessions with their offensive rebounding.
Ultimately, this game should stay close if UNC’s deep ball isn’t falling. I believe they can still beat this number without an elite performance from deep, and they should easily beat this number if their shot is falling. SDSU doesn’t have the offense to keep up, so they’re going to have to make this game ugly if they even want to stand a chance.
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American -2.5 (-108 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
I always tell people to be careful with low-level college basketball games. They add more volatility to an already volatile sport, but I truly don’t understand the spread on this game.
American and Mount St. Mary’s played similar schedules [in terms of strength] this season. The difference is American played a very difficult non-conference schedule.
Two huge aspects will determine this game. Turnovers and three-pointers. Let’s break these two areas down.
Mount St. Mary’s struggles to create turnovers and American isn’t an offense that generally just gives the ball away. On the other side, American is outstanding at creating turnovers, specifically live-ball steals, and Mount St. Mary’s struggles terribly in this end. American is going to have a massive edge in terms of turnovers.
Both of these teams score a ton of points via the deep ball. The big difference is how their opponents score. Mount St. Mary’s allows their opponents to score the 33rd-most points in the country via the three-pointer. American ranks 310th in the same category.
Mount St. Mary’s is going to let American shoot in this game, as they have allowed everyone to this season. American currently has five players who play significant minutes and shoot 34.2% or better from deep. Matt Rogers shoots 40.7% on volume, while Greg Jones shoots 46.5%.
American is going to force Mount St. Mary’s off the line, and they aren’t a team that is efficient inside the arc. That isn’t their game, but this is a spot that lines up absurdly well for American. Assuming they shoot their normal percentages, they make an elite option to win this game.