CBB Conference Tournament Outright Winners (2024)
My favorite conference tournament bets for 2024
What’s up, y’all? We’ve been dominating CBB prop betting recently. We’re up +67.34 units since January 27th. It’s been an incredible run, and I plan on keeping it going for March Madness! You can get ALL of my plays here!
Sports betting was just legalized in North Carolina, though, so I made some conference tournament bets. These will be free since they aren’t player props (PrizePicks, Sleeper, Chalkboard). Good luck if you tail any of these!
Ivy League - Princeton (+105 - 2 units)
Goal: Outright Winner
My favorite bet overall is Princeton, and I’m shocked we’re getting this at plus odds at all. I believe Princeton is drastically better than Cornell or Brown, and they’re a tier above Yale.
The biggest key to this tournament is that Cornell and Yale will have a tough battle against each other, while Princeton [more or less] gets a free ride to the finals against Brown.
If Cornell upsets Yale, it should be a relatively each game for Princeton. If Yale advances, it becomes a bit more difficult.
That said, I believe Princeton has the two best players (Caden Pierce, Xaivian Lee) in the Ivy League, giving them an edge over anyone. Sure, you can argue Danny Wolf, and I acknowledge that Bez Mbeng is up there as well, but I firmly believe Princeton is easily the top team, and they don’t need to go through a long tournament that adds variance.
Big East - Villanova (+2000 - 1 unit)
Goal: Hedge
I tweeted a while ago that I believed Villanova should be in the NCAA Tournament, despite them having plus odds to make it. Since then, they’ve solidified their chances a bit more, but they can guarantee it with a small run in the Big East Tournament.
I firmly believe that there are three teams - UConn, Creighton, and Marquette - who are better than everyone else. You then have the second tier - Villanova and St. John’s (could argue Seton Hall, Xavier, Providence, or Butler as well) - who are likely slightly undervalued.
The key here is that Villanova basically needs one upset for us to be in a great spot. They face off against DePaul in the first round, which is a bit of a joke. If they lose, or even have to exert any energy here, I’ll take it on the chin.
Villanova then moves to the spot where we want them. In the second round, they face off against Marquette. Granted, I don’t want to play Marquette, but it means they aren’t playing UConn or Creighton (yet).
Marquette has been without Tyler Kolek, and they may limit him (if he returns) in this tournament to prepare for the more important NCAA Tournament. Even if he plays, I believe Nova is live.
If Villanova finds the upset against Marquette, we can hedge against Creighton and UConn (assuming the tournament plays out how we’d assume).
Big Sky - Montana (-105 - 1.05 units)
Goal: Outright Winner
The Big Sky has been a shit show so far, and it’s why we’re getting such good odds on Montana. There are essentially three good teams in the Big Sky, and two of them have been eliminated. Northern Colorado, who isn’t good, has been eliminated as well, and they’re better than three of the remaining four.
Montana is the final “good” team left in the Big Sky. They essentially have to beat two bad teams to win the tournament at this point.
The other key is that Montana likely even farther ahead of the other three teams than the numbers suggest since they played a DRASTICALLY better non-conference schedule.
Keep in mind, this is the Big Sky. There is no lock here. But we’re getting a good number on a team that I believe is far better than anyone else remaining in the tournament.
Big Ten - Illinois (+310 - 1 unit)
Goal: Outright Winner (Potential Hedge)
First, I believe the numbers on Illinois are slightly skewed because of the time Terrence Shannon missed. You can’t replace a player like him, but he’s back and fully in the swing of things. Truthfully, it may have helped them in the long run, as they found that Marcus Domask can also handle this team.
Overall, though, this is a bet on the bracket. Have you seen it? It’s embarrassing. Let me run you through what’s about to happen.
Illinois gets a “double-bye,” but it’s really only a one-round bye. Whatever. It doesn’t matter.
What matters is that Illinois will first take on the winner of Ohio State or Iowa. This should be a pretty clear-cut win, as they are significantly better than either program at this point.
They will then face one of Nebraska, Indiana, Penn State, or Michigan in their next game. Seriously, their toughest matchup could be against a Nebraska team that can’t win on the road.
Poof. Illinois is in the finals. We can hedge out against Purdue if we want. If somehow Purdue doesn’t make the finals, we’re sitting on the best team remaining.
Truthfully, we can also just play this out against Purdue, though. It isn’t out of the question that Illinois beats them, although I do believe Purdue is going to win this tournament.
Conference USA - Louisiana Tech (+115 - 1 unit)
Goal: Outright Winner
There isn’t much to say here. When you’re looking at March Madness, you basically want three different parts to a team:
Do you have a guard that won’t turn over the ball?
Do you have any player who can create their own shot when needed?
Do you have a big who can change the game defensively?
We don’t need ALL of that in the Conference USA tournament. Louisiana Tech will turn the ball over. That’s a major issue, and that’s basically what we’re worried of here.
Isaiah Crawford is a player who can go get his own shot when he wants. He’s a dominant scorer, and Tahlik Chavez is another player who can catch fire.
Finally, Daniel Batcho has dominated this lesser conference all season. He’s an elite big for the conference, and he was already good at Texas Tech in the Power 6.
Overall, LT has the two best players in this league, and I don’t believe it’s even really close. We’re getting plus odds on a team that should cruise on their way to the NCAA Tournament, and I love what we’re getting here.
Mountain West - Colorado State (+850 - 1 unit)
Goal: Outright Winner (Likely Hedge)
This is a bet on value.
There are essentially 6 teams that are all the same (San Diego State can be listed as slightly above the other five teams) as each other in the Mountain West. You can add UNLV to that group since they’ll have home-court advantage in this tournament.
I believe you can make a strong case that Colorado State is the second-best team in the conference behind San Diego State. I also think they have a very real chance at beating them.
Isaiah Stevens is one of the best point guards in the NCAA, and he’s going to be elite in the tournament setting. He doesn’t turn the ball over, and he can create his own shots or shots for others.
I acknowledge this is going to be a difficult path for Colorado State, but it’s going to be difficult for any team in the Mountain West because of how even a lot of them are.
Overall, there’s no reason for Colorado State to be available at +850 compared to the odds of other teams in this tournament.
SEC - Texas A&M (+10,000 - 0.5 units)
Goal: Hedge
Texas A&M was one of the most disappointing teams in the NCAA this season, but they’re better than they’re getting for the odds here. Granted, this likely fizzles out early, but that’s why it’s +10,000.
A&M isn’t THAT bad, and they have two players who can completely take over games. They are also elite at rebounding, giving them extra opportunities.
The two teams in the SEC that I wouldn’t want to play are Tennessee and Kentucky, but I’d play Kentucky 10x over before I’d want to face off against Tennessee. Luckily, A&M is in Kentucky’s half of the bracket, avoiding Tennessee (and Auburn) until the finals.
The most likely path for A&M would be Ole Miss, Kentucky, Florida/Alabama, and then the finals. If they upset Kentucky, we can start hedging.
This isn’t a bet saying that I think Texas A&M is going to beat Kentucky or they’re going to make a deep run. It’s a bet saying +10,000 odds are wrong.