College Basketball Props (12/8)

College Basketball Props for Thursday, December 8

We’re coming off a great day for CBB! We went 7-3, and it would’ve been 8-2 if Erik Stevenson didn’t get shut out in the second half. Talk about insane. He scored 13 in the first half but caught the hook still. It’s another good slate, and I really like what we’re working with! If you’re new to the Buy Low newsletter, make sure you subscribe [for free] above this paragraph so you don’t miss any of my plays!

It’s important to note that this is my first season betting College Basketball props, specifically on PrizePicks. I’m not 100% sure what to expect. Make sure you’re only playing bets that you like. I’ll outline my reasoning for everything I post, though!

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CBB Props

I feel like a couple of these lines could shift soon, so I’m getting these out to Buy Low subs as soon as possible. As always, you can go to buylow.substack.com and click on the article to find the analysis once it’s added (if you’re looking at the email).

Zed Key PRA

Key isn’t the flashiest player on the court, but he’s good. That’s the easiest way to put it, which is why we’re getting a solid number here on him.

Rutgers features an elite defense. There isn’t any way around it. With that being said, you can attack them at the rim. They feature the best three-point defense in the NCAA, meaning you have to beat them with twos and free throws.

Key is an outstanding scorer inside the arc. He’s shooting 76% from two-point range this season. He’s also outstanding at drawing fouls, although he’s only shooting 68.8% from the free throw line in 2022.

Key is also the best offensive rebounder for Ohio State, and Rutgers is susceptible to offensive rebounds. These could turn into a few easy put-backs for the Ohio State big man.

Unsurprisingly, Key is also the best defensive rebounder for Ohio State. He should be able to find quite a bit of success in what projects to be a more defensive game. This total is slightly too low.

Zed Key o19.5 PRA

Abdoul Karim Coulibaly PRA

Oh, man. If you’ve been riding with me for a couple of weeks now, you probably were screwed by Coulibaly the other night. He dominated but played limited minutes. I don’t see that being a problem tonight.

Coulibaly gets a matchup against UMass in a game that is expected to stay close throughout. There are relatively clear ways to beat them as well.

UMass struggles inside the arc. They’re also willing to foul their opponents and give up offensive rebounds. Furthermore, they’ve struggled with allowing assists, which is great for Coulibaly.

The UMass-Lowell big man has been dominant inside the arc this season. He’s shooting 70.8% from two-point range in 2022. He isn’t someone that draws a ton of fouls, though.

Coulibaly is an elite rebounder. He ranks 20th in the country in offensive rebounding rate (15.8%). He also boasts a 23.5% defensive rebounding rate, which is outstanding.

Coulibaly owns elite scoring and rebounding potential. He could be in for a big double-double tonight, although I don’t believe he needs one to beat this total.

Abdoul Karim Coulibaly o24.5 PRA

Taevion Kinsey PRA

The first part of this play is that Kinsey has played 93.8% of the minutes this season. This ranks fourth in the entire NCAA. He also spends time at point guard, shooting guard, and small forward.

Kinsey is shooting 80% from the line, 55.3% from two-point range, and 50% from deep. He doesn’t shoot all that much from beyond the arc, but he does have the ability to stretch the floor when needed.

The biggest key here is that Kinsey can add rebounds and assists. He isn’t a dominant rebounder, but Duquesne struggles with offensive rebounds, which could open the door for a few extra rebounds for the versatile player.

If Kinsey can get a couple of easy put-backs along with some shots at the line, he should find plenty of scoring success. He can add plenty of rebounds and assists to his line as well.

I’m strictly going with his PRA because I love his versatility and time on the floor rather than just his scoring potential.

Taevion Kinsey o28.5 PRA

Kris Murray PRA

I initially hated this matchup against Iowa State, but I actually think it’s a great matchup for Murray. Iowa State owns an elite defense, although that’s generally based on turnovers. Iowa is the best in the NCAA in turnover rate.

Iowa State allows offensive rebounds and they’re willing to foul. Murray is the best offensive rebounder on Iowa’s team, owning an 11.8% offensive rebounding rate. He also boasts a team-high 21.9% defensive rebounding rate.

Murray isn’t the best player in the NCAA at drawing fouls. He’s shooting 80% from the line when he gets there, though, and he does have the ability to get to the line when he wants.

Iowa State also forces you to shoot from deep, even though they’re great at defending it. Murray boasts a 37.8% three-point percentage in 2022 thus far.

Overall, I see Murray finding plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities.

Kris Murray o27.5 PRA

Hunter Dickinson Points

This is relatively simple. Dickinson owns a team-high 31.3% shot rate while on the floor. It’s one of the higher rates in the NCAA. It’s clear that he’s the focal point of his offense, and he’s going to get his shot.

It isn’t necessarily an elite matchup against Minnesota, but they’re a team that will force you to beat them with twos. That’s where Dickinson is at his best.

Minnesota also struggles mightily with offensive rebounds. It’s the main reason I considered PRA here, but I don’t fully trust Dickinson in that situation. If he does get those boards, he should be getting some easy put-backs to help his points regardless.

My only concern is that Minnesota doesn’t foul, but they may be forced to foul a bit more against a big like Dickinson.

Hunter Dickinson o20.5 points

Gabe Madsen Points

This feels like the riskiest play on this slate because there is some blowout risk in this game. Still, KenPom only has Utah as a 15-point favorite, and that isn’t a large enough number to bench starters.

Jacksonville State forces you to take threes, and they struggle to defend them. They’re giving up 42% of their points from beyond the arc, which is the fifth-most in the NCAA.

That’s the reason I’m attacking Madsen tonight. He’s shooting 41.4% from deep on a team-high 58 three-point attempts this season. He’s a dominant three-point shooter, and that should be on full display in this matchup.

Madsen also has the ability to draw fouls. He’s shooting 76.7% from the line in 2022, and Jacksonville State is willing to foul their opponents. This could lead to a few extra points for Madsen tonight.

Gabe Madsen o11.5 points