College Basketball Props (2/20)
College Basketball Props for Monday, February 20
Tonight is a test of bankroll management. This is the biggest key to long-term winning when gambling. I absolutely love this slate. I haven’t felt this good about my plays in quite some time. But you absolutely have to stick to what you’ve been doing. Feeling good about a slate doesn’t guarantee a win. Please, stick to your bankroll management strategy. Or you will lose all of your money long-term. If you’re new to the Buy Low newsletter, make sure you subscribe [for free] above this paragraph so you don’t miss any of my plays!
It’s important to note that this is my first season betting College Basketball props, specifically on PrizePicks. I’m not 100% sure what to expect. Make sure you’re only playing bets that you like. I’ll outline my reasoning for everything I post, though!
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CBB Props
I’m sending these out to Buy Low subs as quickly as possible so you can get the same numbers as me! If you want to read the analysis, go to buylow.substack.com and click on the article. It’ll be added as soon as I can get it finished!
I’m sticking with the plays in order of my favorites here. They won’t be numbered, but these plays are listed in order of my favorite from top to bottom. I’ll say that again. These plays are listed in order of my favorite from top to bottom.
Joe Bryant Points (Norfolk State)
Elite pace-up spot
Elite matchup vs Coppin State
Beat Coppin State anywhere but easiest with threes & free throws
31% shot rate and 40.9% free throw rate in CP
Shooting 88.9% at the line, 50% inside the arc, and 35.9% from deep in CP
Averaging 18.5 PPG in CP
17+ points in 14 of last 18 games
Joe Bryant o16.5 points
Elijah Pepper PRA (UC Davis)
Weird number
Points & Rebounds set at 31 (25.5, 5.5) on PrizePicks
Why would hit assists be set at 2.5?
Absurd assist value in this matchup
Great matchup vs bad UC San Diego defense
Beat them anywhere, although easiest beyond the arc
33.9% shot rate while playing 89.7% of the minutes in CP
Extremely efficient scorer from anywhere
4.8% offensive & 15.5% defensive rebounding rates in CP
26.5% assist rate in CP
28+ points in seven consecutive games
Elijah Pepper o33.5 PRA
Flynn Cameron Points (UC Riverside)
Again, what are we doing here?
Good matchup vs Cal St. Northridge
Beat them w/ threes & free throws
Shooting 43.8% from deep in conference play
Not elite at drawing fouls, but should see a few opportunities at the line tonight
21 & 24 points in last two games
Important to note, he’s been good at drawing fouls throughout his career (just not this season)
25.8% shot rate in conference play
Flynn Cameron o11.5 points
Francis Nwaokorie Points (UC San Diego)
UC Davis forces you to beat them inside the arc or at the line
Offensive rebounds available
20.3% shot rate & 38.5% free throw rate in CP
Shooting 78.2% at the line, 60.2% from inside the arc, and 41.7% from deep in CP
8.3% offensive rebounding rate could equal easy opportunities at the rim
12+ points in each of his last six games
Averaging 17 PPG over that span
Francis Nwaokorie o11.5 points
Sam Sessoms PRA (Coppin State)
Extremely impressive mid-major player on a bad team
31.7% shot rate & 29.8% free throw rate in CP
Shooting 83% at the line, 56.6% from inside the arc, and 38.5% from deep in CP
32% assist rate in CP (slightly higher overall)
Boasts triple-double potential w/ 40-point upside
Good matchup vs Norfolk State
Beat them at the line and beyond the arc
Biggest issue is this is a pace-down spot
Sam Sessoms o27.5 PRA
Miles Norris Points (UC Santa Barbara)
Big that can stretch the floor
Beat Cal St Fullerton with threes & free throws
Offensive rebounds available
22% shot rate & 27.3% free throw rate in CP
Extremely efficient scorer
6.9% offensive rebounding rate could lead to a couple of easy baskets
Too much upside for this number
Miles Norris o12.5 points
Antavion Collum Points (Cal St. Bakersfield)
Hate the game environment
Beat Hawaii with twos and free throws
29.2% shot rate & 51.4% free throw rate in conference play
Leads CSB in two-point and free throw attempts
17+ points in six of last seven games
Averaging 21.1 PPG over that span
If Hawaii didn’t play so slow, this would be set at 17.5, and this feels like an overcorrection
Antavion Collum o13.5 points
Dajuan Harris Assists (Kansas)
One of the best passers in the NCAA
31% assist rate TY
Elite shooters/scorers around him
Great matchup vs TCU
TCU struggles with assists to their opponents
9 assists in each of last two games
8 assists vs TCU earlier TY
Dajuan Harris o5.5 assists
Dawson Baker Points (UC Irvine)
Beat Cal Poly anywhere, specifically at the line
28.5% shot rate & 42.3% free throw rate in CP
Efficient option from anywhere on the floor
Biggest concern is minutes
18+ points in four of last six games
Some concerns that DJ Davis could get foul points at the end of the game, but Baker could get some as well
Dawson Baker o15.5 points
Kalib Boone Points (Oklahoma State)
You have to draw fouls to beat West Virginia
You can also beat them inside the arc
26% shot rate & 45.8% free throw rate in CP
Nearly all shots inside the arc
Refreshed after playing 10 mins last game
Should return to normal role
Owns 25+ point upside
Kalib Boone o13.5 points
KJ Adams PRA (Kansas)
Beat TCU at the rim
Offensive rebounds available
Free throws also available
19.6% shot rate & 53.3% free throw rate in CP
Shooting 61.7% from inside the arc in CP
All shots in CP from inside the arc
10.9% offensive rebounding rate
Pairs well with Dajuan Harris for assist opportunities at the rim
KJ Adams o17.5 PRA
Kyle Filipowski Fantasy Points (Duke)
This wouldn’t be even close to the bottom if I knew this game could stay close (or even relatively close that Filipowski gets relatively normal minutes)
Beat Louisville defense anywhere
Offensive rebounds & assists available
Blocks and steals available
28.8% shot rate & 40.2% free throw rate in CP
Can score from anywhere
9.6% offensive & 24.8% defensive rebounding rates in CP
3.2% block & 2.0% steal rates in CP
Should contribute in each of the five categories tonight
Kyle Filipowski o35.3 FPs