How to Find the Next Heisman Winner
Use 15 years of winning trends—yardage, touchdowns, team wins & ‘Heisman moments’—to filter real contenders from fool’s-gold long shots
The Heisman Trophy is the highest individual prize for College Football players. It’s been given out since 1935, and some of the numbers the winners posted are hilarious in retrospect. I’m here to help you find the next Heisman winner before the season starts.
There are a few thresholds that we can hold in high standards. Of course, we’ll have to project what teams and players produce for the season, and that will be the true value of finding the next Heisman winner. But if they can meet these expectations, they’re a player who should be left off your list.
Let’s get to it!
Position
Some people will argue that position doesn’t matter, and that the Heisman is given to the best player each season. Although others can win the Heisman, it’s generally a quarterback award.
Since 2010, 12 of the last 15 Heisman winners are quarterbacks. The three exceptions were Derrick Henry, DeVonta Smith, and Travis Hunter. Two of those players posted historic numbers, while the third defied “logic” by playing both sides of the ball at a high level.
It isn’t impossible for non-quarterbacks to win the Heisman, but it is drastically more difficult. If you’re playing the odds, quarterbacks are the position to bet.
Class
I was under the impression that upperclassmen have won the Heisman more than they have. Granted, they’re still winning the majority of them, but it isn’t a clean sweep by any stretch.
There have only been 4 seniors to win the Heisman over the last 15 years. There have also been 6 juniors over that span. Overall, upperclassmen have won 67% of the Heismans since 2010.
There have been 3 sophomore winners, and the final two were redshirt freshmen. We can essentially exclude any true freshmen from our options, and generally, we can avoid any first-year starters. The exception to this rule would be an elite roster surrounding them.
Team Success
The Heisman is an individual trophy, but voters can’t separate team wins from individual metrics. Voters refuse to believe the best player in the NCAA could play on anything but an elite team. It’s relatively obvious in the way they vote.
Since 2010, 11 of the 15 Heisman winners have ended the regular season on teams with 10+ wins. There have also been 10 winners on a team with 1 or fewer losses at the end of the regular season.
Although a team doesn’t absolutely need to reach double-digit wins for a player to win the Heisman, the other 4 winners have been on 9-win teams.
It isn’t a requirement for a player to play on an elite team, but it’s obvious at this point that team success is a major factor when determining the Heisman winner.
Individual Metrics
Former Heisman winners have had numbers a bit all over the place in the last 15 seasons. We’ve seen as few as 4,300 yards and 44 touchdowns from Jameis Winston to as many as 6,000 yards and 65 touchdowns from Joe Burrow.
There are specific baselines we want our players to get to if we want them to have a realistic shot at winning the Heisman Trophy.
Quarterback
Although it isn’t always needed, we’re generally looking for 4,900+ total yards and 47+ total touchdowns from quarterbacks. Since 2010, 9 of 12 quarterbacks beat those numbers. One miss was Bryce Young, who posted 4,872 yards and 50 touchdowns.
The two outliers were Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. The similarity between these two was that they both went undefeated. Winston’s been the worst quarterback [statistically] to win the Heisman since 2010. Newton didn’t quite meet the yards requirement, but he did post nearly 1,500 yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground.
It’s relatively safe to assume a quarterback will need 4,800 total yards and 45+ total touchdowns to be in consideration for the Heisman.
Running Back & Wide Receiver
If you’re looking for a non-quarterback to win the Heisman, you’re looking for 1,800+ yards and 20+ touchdowns. This is the threshold we’re looking for, dating back to the 1990s, which was when more positions outside of quarterback won the award.
In recent seasons, DeVonta Smith posted 117 receptions for 1,853 yards and 23 touchdowns. Derrick Henry is the other non-QB winner since 2010, and he recorded 2,310 total yards and 28 total touchdowns in his winning season.
If a non-QB is going to win the Heisman, they need to be the clear focal point of their offense, finding drastically more success than anyone else.
Other
I added this section because I know someone will mention Travis Hunter as a player who didn’t hit the wide receiver metrics but also won it. He was a unicorn, and truthfully, the shine likely wore off already.
I’m not taking away anything Hunter specifically did, but I am going to take away from what the next two-way star does.
Hunter won because people weren’t used to what he did. If anyone else does that in the next few years, it won’t come off as impressive. We’ve seen it in recent years, which is what I mean when I say the shine will wear off.
In other words, we won’t see a two-way star win the Heisman for that any time soon.
Signature Moment
Truthfully, this sounds ridiculous and is virtually impossible to project, but every Heisman winner has some type of signature moment that is recognized. This is designed to build hype, which is a major driving factor for voters.
Don’t believe me?
Cam Newton scored 4 touchdowns to beat #9 Alabama after going down 24-0 in the first half. Robert Griffin III upset #5 Oklahoma, throwing the game-winning touchdowns with 8 seconds left after the Sooners tied the game with 51 seconds remaining. Lamar Jackson posted 5 touchdowns in a 43-point win against #2 Florida State.
This isn’t only for quarterbacks, though. Derrick Henry ran for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns against #4 LSU, with Leonard Fournette struggling on the other side. DeVonta Smith posted 200+ yards and 4+ touchdowns in two games over four weeks.
These are just select examples, but every Heisman candidate has some type of game where they had their signature moment. If you’re projecting the next Heisman winner, you need a player who can have “that” game to force his name into the media.
Conclusion
The Heisman Trophy is certainly an individual award, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other factors that need to be considered. When betting on a candidate, you have to keep the following in mind:
They’ll most likely be a quarterback
Avoid true freshmen, and give an edge to non-first-year starters
Their team needs 9+ wins (with 10 being a drastically better number)
QBs need 4,800+ yards & 45+ touchdowns, RBs/WRs need 1,800+ yards & 20+ touchdowns
That player needs the opportunity to have a signature moment for a media talking point
If you’re looking at betting on the Heisman winner, and they don’t match one of these metrics, you likely shouldn’t waste your money. There will be better options on the board.