MLB Plays (6/19)

MLB Slip for Thursday, June 19

Truthfully, we’re on a bit of a tough stretch after that ridiculous winning streak. I took the day off yesterday after losing two slips with Andrew Abbott and Ben Brown in some of the most ridiculous ways you could think of on Tuesday lol. Regardless, we’re back now after a mental reset, so let’s get to the action!

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MLB Plays

Here’s an MLB slip for today’s slate! The first game starts slightly after 1 PM EST, so make sure you get it in quick!

Carlos Rodon

• Absolutely hate trusting Rodon pitch

  • Personal thing, dude’s incredible

• Incredible predictive metrics

  • 90th percentile xERA

  • 93rd percentile xBA

• 80th & 90th percentiles in chase & whiff rate

  • 23% or better whiff rate on 5/5 pitches

  • 25% or better on all but 4-seamer

  • 43.2% and 39.1% on slider and changeup

• Excluding L2S vs BOS, 7+ Ks in 10/13 starts TY

  • Averaging 7.5 K/S in those 13 starts

• Elite matchup vs LAA

  • 2nd in K-rate (26.8%) & 26th in team wOBA (.285) over L14D

  • 1st in K-rate (28.1%) & 28th in team wOBA (.270) vs LHP TY

  • Starting 7 batters with 25% or worse K-rate vs LHP TY

  • Starting 6 batters with 25% or worse K-rate over L14D

  • 3/L4 LHSP have 7+ Ks vs LAA

    • Ryan Yarbrough missed with 3 (second time facing them in less than 3 weeks)

Logan Webb

• Interesting metrics

  • 87th percentile xERA

  • 57th percentile xBA (makes very little sense)

  • Elite percentiles in walk rate (88th), barrel rate (87th), hard-hit rate (71st), & ground ball rate (91st)

• Strikeout metrics are a bit weird

  • 70th & 59th percentiles in chase & whiff rate

  • 80th percentile strikeout rate

  • Ultimately, suggests regression

    • I’m not sure I believe that because it’s his reliance early in counts on his sinker (11.6% whiff rate)

    • Owns 33% or better whiff rates on 3/5 pitches

    • Sinker is a shockingly good put-away pitch (always has been for Webb)

• Elite 2.26 xFIP in San Francisco

  • Allows him to throw deeper into the game

  • 6+ Ks in 5/7 home games TY

    • Missed vs A’s and Royals

• Incredible matchup vs CLE

  • Seventh in K-rate (24.6%) & 29th in team wOBA (.273) over L14D

  • 8/L12 RHSP posted 6+ Ks vs CLE

    • Emerson Hancock (4), George Kirby (5), Jack Kochanowicz (4), and Jose Soriano (2) were misses

    • Justin Verlander (6), Kyle Hendricks (6), Dustin May (9), and Casey Mize (6) were interesting options who hit

• Ability to throw 7+ innings in a plus matchup makes this total too low

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