We’re coming off of another great day! We went 2-1 on PrizePicks and 2-1 on our bets. Today is just another day for us to money. It’s Saturday, so all of my plays will be posted on Buy Low. If you’re new to the newsletter, make sure you subscribe [for free] above this paragraph so you don’t miss any of my plays!
If you’re new to PrizePicks, click the link in the name to sign up! Use the Promo Code ‘BALES’ to receive a 100% deposit bonus of up to $100!
MLB Props
I’ll prefer this section by saying FanDuel is way too overdramatic with their opening lines. With that being said, I do believe that these numbers are too low. Drew Smyly should shift to 5 and Aaron Ashby should move to 5.5 at some point today. Also, if you’re wondering, yes this is the same play as yesterday with two different pitchers. I liked it then, and I like it now.
Drew Smyly Strikeouts
Smyly currently owns -156 odds on over 4.5 strikeouts on FanDuel. I’d expect this to lessen at some point, but I do still think there’s value here.
Once again, this is about the matchup. It’s the same as yesterday. Smyly isn’t some dominant pitcher overall. He owns a 3-6 record with a 4.42 ERA and a 4.19 xFIP through 13 starts.
Smyly’s recorded a 7.3 K/9 this season. He’s posted 18.8% strikeout, 12.3% swinging-strike, and 26.3% CSW rates through 59 innings.
The lefty is better at home, where his strikeout rate increases to 21.5% this season. He’s also a reverse splits pitcher, striking out right-handed batters 22% of the time in 2022.
This is literally the opposite of Justin Steele, who generally struggled against righties. That didn’t matter for Steele, as he recorded double-digit strikeouts against this Miami Marlins team yesterday.
Miami is loaded with right-handed batters, but they struggle against left-handed pitching. They’re striking out at the second-highest rate (29.3%) in the MLB against left-handed pitching since July 16th.
Normally, I’d want my pitcher to attack them with a slider, but I think Smyly’s curveball will work fine today. It doesn’t play as a slider like someone like Aaron Nola, but I don’t truly believe it matters.
There are so many strikeouts available throughout the Miami offense, specifically against left-handed pitching, that Smyly should have no problems grabbing 5 today.
Aaron Ashby Strikeouts
Ashby’s strikeout total is set at 6.5 on FanDuel. He owns -440 odds to record 5 strikeouts and -194 odds to record 6 strikeouts. The value is obvious.
Ashby’s seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 2-9 record with a 4.13 ERA through 20 games (14 starts). He also boasts a 3.19 xFIP, suggesting he’s throwing at a significantly higher level than his results show.
Ashby enters this game with a 10.9 K/9 through 80.2 innings. He’s recorded 27.3% strikeout, 13% swinging-strike, and 33.8% CSW rates this season.
Ashby’s posted 5+ strikeouts in 9 of his 14 starts this season. He’s also recorded 6 and 9 strikeouts over his last 2 starts.
The left-hander has been drastically better in Milwaukee this season. His strikeout rate increases to 28.4% while his xFIP dops to only 2.65. This will allow him to throw deeper into the game.
A key problem here is that he’s much worse against right-handed pitching. He owns a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 3.27 xFIP against that handedness. Neither of these numbers are bad, though, and he’s still in a great spot.
The Cincinnati Reds are striking out 25.9% of the time on the road against left-handed since July 16th. They also rank second-last in the MLB in OPS (.494) over that span.
Ashby is a better strikeout option than Eric Lauer, who posted 4 strikeouts over 7 innings last night. If Ashby can throw 7 innings tonight, he’ll easily surpass this number.
Truthfully, it should be set at 5.5 at the worst, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it were set at 6 at some point.
Bet Drew Smyly o4.5 Ks & Aaron Ashby o5 Ks (3x)