We’re coming off of a bad day where we lost 1.5 units. We got hooked by one guy on both plays, and we also got hooked on the $100 giveaway play (via two players). It was a tough situation, but it happens. We move forward. Long-term profits are what we’re looking for. If you’re new to the Buy Low newsletter, subscribe [for free] above this paragraph so you don’t miss any of my plays!
If you’re new to PrizePicks, click the link in the name to sign up! Use the Promo Code ‘BALES’ to receive a 100% deposit bonus of up to $100!
MLB Props
I’m expecting Zac Gallen to move to 6 strikeouts at some point today. Chris Bassitt is also at a VERY key number, but I’m not sure if PrizePicks will move his fantasy points. They usually don’t. I’m getting this out ASAP for Buy Low subs!
Chris Bassitt Fantasy Points
I’ll explain more later, but Bassitt is essentially projected for 40 FPs. I wouldn’t bet this over 39.5. It’s a key number.
Before we get into any type of stats for Bassitt, let me explain how he’s “projected” for 40 fantasy points tonight. Here are his odds on DraftKings:
Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
Under 18.5 pitching outs (-115)
To record a win (-160)
Under 2.5 earned runs (-155)
This essentially is giving Bassitt the following line: 6 innings, 6 strikeouts, 2 earned runs, 1 win, and 1 quality start. When you add it all up, it equals 40 fantasy points.
This doesn’t take into account the extra stats Bassitt could hit, but it’s just a straight projection from DraftKings sportsbook. We’re getting a great number at 39.5 fantasy points, but now to explain a bit more about the actual play.
Bassitt enjoyed an outstanding season. He’s been drastically better at home, though. Through 64.2 home innings, he boasts an outstanding 3.22 xFIP. His strikeout rate also jumps to 26.6% in those games.
Bassitt’s strikeouts have been a bit up and down in recent starts, but he’s thrown 6+ innings in each of his last 8 starts. He also threw as many as 8.1 innings over that span.
Most importantly, Bassitt gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are striking out at the third-highest rate (25.8%) in the MLB over the last 14 days. They’re also striking out at the sixth-highest rate (24.7%) in the league against right-handed pitching since July 16th.
One of the biggest keys here is that the Reds have struggled quite a bit on the road. They rank last in the MLB in OPS (.486) on the road against right-handed pitching since July 16th. If you don’t initially realize how insane that OPS is, the next lowest is the Detroit Tigers at .544. In terms of good teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the league with an .843 OPS over that span.
Essentially, I am banking on a win and quality start here, but I see no reason Bassitt wouldn’t get it done. I think he can post well over 6 strikeouts or record more than 6 innings, though, so there is some room for error.
Zac Gallen Strikeouts
Gallen currently owns -160 odds on over 5.5 strikeouts on DraftKings.
Gallen’s looked outstanding throughout the 2022 season. He boasts an 8.6 K/9 through 20 starts. He also owns 23.3% strikeout, 9.2% swinging-strike, and 26.4% CSW rates in 2022.
Gallen’s a significantly better pitcher at home, though. His strikeout rate jumps to 25.1%, while his xFIP dips to 3.58 in Arizona.
The right-hander’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts this season. He’s posted 6+ strikeouts in only 7 of 20 starts, but this is a matchup play.
Gallen will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. The Pirates are striking out at the eighth-highest rate (24%) in the MLB over the last 14 days. They’re also striking out 23.7% of the time against right-handed pitching since July 16th.
Similar to Bassitt’s matchup against the Reds, Gallen should be able to throw deeper into this game against Pittsburgh. They aren’t a good road offense against right-handed pitching, and that will work in Gallen’s favor tonight.
Gallen also gets plenty of whiffs on his curveball and changeup, which are two pitches the Pirates have struggled with this season. There will be plenty of opportunities for Gallen, and it will solely depend on if he can capitalize on them or not.
We recently saw Spenser Watkins and Austin Voth post 5 strikeouts each in 5.1 and 5 innings against Pittsburgh. Gallen should throw 6+ innings, and he has better strikeout stuff than both pitchers.
As long as this is set under 6, I’m willing to take my chances.
Bet Chris Bassitt o39.5 FPs & Zac Gallen o5.5 Ks (3x)