NFL SZN PrizePicks 6-man

My favorite 6-man for the NFL season on PrizePicks

We’re starting to close in on the NFL season, and we’re starting to get information from training camp. PrizePicks has the NFLSZN board up, so it’s time for us to make our 6-man for the season.

I’m shifting this to a Power Play for 37.5x rather than a Flex Play. Why do I want to tie my money up for months to get back 2x? Give me the extra 12.5x and I’ll accept no return if I go 5/6.

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NFLSZN 6-man

Below, I’ll post a screenshot of the 6-man with analysis on each player. Let’s get to it!

Rashee Rice

• I truly believe this is the worst number available, and we’re going to look back thinking, “how in the world was this available to us?”

• 10th in Y/RR & 7th in T/RR as a rookie (min 100 routes)

• 2nd in Y/RR & T/RR in 2024 before his injury (min 50)

• WORST 5-game stretch of his career (first 5 games) totals nearly 600 across 17 games

  • Played 35.7% of the snaps in these 5 games

• Averaged 6.5/65.5/03 line on 8.3 targets per game as a rookie across 4 playoff games

  • 111/1114/4 line on 140 targets across 17 games

• Patrick Mahomes is projected for 4,000 yards

• I’m not concerned about Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown [or anyone else], but there is room for them to perform well, and Rice still beat this number

• Even if he’s drastically less efficient, it’s too low

• Looks fully healthy at training camp, and he won’t be suspended until next season (at the earliest)

J.J. McCarthy

• I don’t have a strong opinion on McCarthy

  • I think he’ll be good in the NFL because of the system and his reported work ethic, but I’m not in love with his natural talent

• I am a massive Kevin O’Connell guy

• QB yards since O’Connell took over as Minnesota’s HC

  • 2024 - Sam Darnold (4,319)

  • 2023 - Kirk Cousins (2,331), Nick Mullens (1,306), Joshua Dobbs (895), Jaren Hall (168) - Total (4,700)

  • 2022 - Kirk Cousins (4,547)

• Wouldn’t give O’Connell full credit, but he’s been doing it way longer than three years

  • 2021 - Matthew Stafford (4,886 - LAR OC)

  • 2020 - Jared Goff (3,952 - 15 games - LAR OC)

  • 2019 - Case Keenum (1,707), Dwayne Haskins (1,365), Colt McCoy (122)

    • 3,400 17-game pace (WAS OC) w/ Chris Thompson as the second-most targeted offensive player

    • Steven Sims, Trey Quinn, Kelvin Harmon, Paul Richardson, & Jeremy Sprinkle, the options behind 24-year-old Terry McLaurin

• O’Connell came out better & smarter after working under Sean McVay in LA

• Elite offensive line, Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison combo at WR, TJ Hockenson at TE, & Aaron Jones as a good receiving threat out of the backfield

• This is a long-winded way of saying everything around McCarthy is so good that dropping 800 yards from Sam Darnold would be crazy

Justin Fields

• 420 yards in limited games as a rookie

• 1,800 yards across 28 games in Years 2 & 3 for Chicago

• Averaged 38.5 Y/G in 6 starts for Pittsburgh

  • 655 yards 17-game pace

• $30 million guaranteed on his two-year, $40 million deal means he’ll play 17 games if he’s healthy in 2025

• Still only 26, so physical traits won’t diminish

• Trust OC Tanner Engstrand to use Fields in the best way possible

• Easily beat this number in his only two seasons with 10+ games of full snaps

• In 2022, he posted 457 yards in 3 games

  • The upside is more than there

Drake Maye

• Mixed results as a rookie

  • Averaged 223.1 PY/G in games with full snaps

    • 3,793 yards 17-game pace

• Patriots’ win total suggests a Year 2 leap from their star quarterback

• Bolstered offensive line, added Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, and TreVeyon Henderson

  • All will help in the pass game

• Mixed on Mike Vrabel signing for Maye’s numbers, but OC Josh McDaniels has found plenty of success with QBs

• NE doesn’t have Derrick Henry to hand the ball 25 times a game like Vrabel did in Tennessee

• Would need a relatively major faceplant in Year 2 for Maye to not beat this number

  • This is viable, we’ve seen it plenty (I just obviously trust Maye)

Courtland Sutton

• One of the most underappreciated players in the NFL

• 81-1,081-8 line on 135 targets LY

• Elite after going 0-0-0-0 in Week 7 against the New Orleans Saints

  • Averaged 6.0-80.4-0.6 on 8.8 targets

    • 102-1,367-10 on 150 targets 17-game pace

  • Beat this number (849.5) in his final 11 games of the season (playoffs included)

  • 8+ targets in 9 of final 11 games

• Same offense with Bo Nix having more experience

• Added Evan Engram at TE and drafted Pat Bryant

  • Not anticipating either player takes over for Sutton as the top option in the offense

  • Engram specifically should take pressure off of Sutton that others (Mims, Vele, Franklin) couldn’t last season

Jakobi Meyers

• Coming off a career-best 87-1,027-4 line on 129 targets

• Paced for 105-1,282-5 on 158 targets after returning from his two-game absence in Week 8

• 800+ receiving yards in four consecutive seasons

• HC Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly have consistently produced players who beat this number

• Offense will run through Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers, and Meyers

• Massive QB upgrade in Geno Smith

• Offense should take a massive step forward, and I’m not concerned about the rookie WRs cutting too much into Meyers’ production

Conclusion

Once again, I’m running this as a Power Play for 37.5x. I don’t care about 2x when I’m dealing with the entire season of holding my money up. I want as much upside as possible.

I’m not going with the most popular guys, but that’s normally where the value lies. I’m taking guys who are underrated or looking to take a step forward. Let’s make some money!