Weekend Cheat Sheet (6/20): 4 Edges You Can Bet

Fast, data‑driven props across MLB — perfect for a two‑minute inbox scan

We’ve hit a little cooler with some bad variance over the last few days, but we’re coming off a profitable day, hitting our free play. Let’s keep it up! If you want all of my plays for 33% off, click here.

As always, subscribe above [for free] if you don’t want to miss any of these articles!

Let’s get down to it now!

Slate Snapshot

⚾ Fri 6:40pm - TEX@PIT, 7:05pm - BAL@NYY

⚾ Sat 3:07pm - CHW@TOR

⚾ Sun 2:20pm - SEA@CHC

Cheat‑Sheet Angles

Edge #1 – deGrom Domination

• Game: Rangers @ Pirates
• Play: Jacob deGrom o17.5 POs
• Metric: 83rd percentile xERA | 90th & 83rd percentiles chase & whiff rates | 88th percentile walk rate | 69th percentile barrel rate | PIT - 27th in team wOBA (.281) over L14D | 29th in team wOBA (.290) vs RHP TY | 25th in swing rate (46.3%) | deGrom should dictate counts

Edge #2 – Baltimore’s Lefty Woes

• Game: Orioles @ Yankees
• Play: Max Fried o17.5 POs
• Metric: 71st percentile xERA | 88th percentile walk rate | 87th percentile ground ball rate | 64th & 68th percentiles barrel & hard-hit rates | 6+ innings in 11/L13 starts | BAL - 30th in team wOBA (.267) vs LHP | Concerns with Baltimore’s ability to run counts up | Trusting Fried’s efficiency

NOTE: The payout sucks, and I rarely take multiple props with these low of multiplier in baseball because of the absurd variance. These spots are too good to pass up, though, and I’m slightly shocked they’re available.

Edge #3 – Home Berrios

• Game: White Sox @ Blue Jays
• Play: Jose Berrios POs
• Metric: Terrible predictive metrics overall | 23.6% K-rate & 3.84 xFIP at home TY | Historically better home pitcher | 6+ innings in 5/L6 home starts | CHW - 1st in K-rate (28.3%) & 28th in team wOBA (.279) over L14D | Average swing rate (47.5%) but above-average first-pitch swing rate (33.2%)

Edge #4 – Gilbert’s Game

• Game: Mariners @ Cubs
• Play: Logan Gilbert Ks
• Metric: 85th & 98th percentiles chase & whiff rates | 3 pitches w/ 44% or better whiff rates (slider, splitter, curve) | 48.7% K-rate vs RHB | 10 Ks on 19 TBF in return from injury | CHC - 11th in K-rate (23.1%) & 25th in team wOBA (.286) over L14D | Check weather on Sunday

Watch‑List Table

Make sure you subscribe [at the top of the page] for free, so you don’t miss any more content!

Click here to unlock today’s full card → View All My Plays