$10 -> $10k Challenge (MLB)
Day One: $10 -> $10k Challenge
I’ll start this out with one of the most important parts of this challenge. Make sure you subscribe [for free] above this paragraph so you don’t miss any of the bets for the challenge. They’ll all be posted here in article format so it’s easy to follow as we try to beat the $10 → $10k challenge!
Rules
Truthfully, I just learned about the $10 → $10k Challenge, and I don’t even know if I’m doing it right. We’re about to find out as I type this lol.
Essentially, you’re starting with $10. You place a bet on anything with roughly +100 odds. You continue this process over and over until you get to $10,000. How it’d look:
$10 → $20 → $40 → $80 → $160 → $320 → $640 → $1,280 → $2,560 → $5,120 → $10,240
It’s 11 wins in a row. The key here allows you to make plenty of money on a small bet. Once you get to the higher numbers, you’re potentially making thousands of dollars on only a $10 bet. The biggest key here is… how far can we really make it before we chicken out and take the money? Lol.
Day One
Here’s the bet and reasoning for the first day!
Drew Smyly Strikeouts
I wrote about Drew Smyly in my other article today, and you can read about that here. I will give some thoughts here as well, though.
Smyly isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher, but this is an elite matchup for him. First, he’s recorded 4+ strikeouts in 10 of his 13 starts this season.
Smyly’s been a better option at home, and he’s shockingly better against right-handed batters. This will be important for the matchup against the Miami Marlins.
Miami utilizes a right-handed heavy lineup, and that will work in Smyly’s favor. They’ve also been struggling against left-handed pitching, and Justin Steele posted 10 strikeouts against them yesterday.
My biggest concern here is that the Marlins feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB against sliders, but Smyly doesn’t use one. His curveball also doesn’t have any break similar to a slider.
With that being said, Smyly does boast a very good curveball, and there are plenty of strikeouts available throughout the Marlins offense. I think he recorded at least 5 strikeouts today, but we’re keeping it at 4 for safety.
Merrill Kelly Strikeouts
Kelly also isn’t a high-end strikeout option, but that doesn’t matter. He’s a pitcher that can throw deep into games, giving him opportunities for strikeouts.
Kelly’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 17 of his 21 starts this season. He’s also hit this number in 5 consecutive starts.
Kelly’s a much better pitcher at home, where his strikeout rate jumps to 23.8%, and his xFIP dips to 3.34. He also gets a plus matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who are a drastically worse offense on the road.
The Rockies are striking out at the 10th-highest rate (23.5%) in the MLB over the last 14 days. They striking out at a similar rate on the road against right-handed pitching since July 16th as well.
This isn’t a situation where I love attacking a big number for Kelly. He’s proven he can get there. I do like him to find success in this matchup, though, and once again, we’re keeping the total extremely low at only 4.
Philadelphia Phillies
This is a relatively simple addition to get the odds over +100 for the play. The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching. I don’t Ranger Suarez, but Patrick Corbin has looked atrocious this season.
The Phillies also have a massive edge with their offense. The Washington Nationals have very little throughout their offense that anyone should be scared of, as Kyle Gibson took a no-hitter late into the game last night.
Finally, the Phillies will be playing at home, and they’ll need to continue to win easy games if they want to continue to make a playoff push.
Philadelphia has every advantage in this game, and they should be able to pick up another win here.
Bet Drew Smyly o3.5 Ks, Merrill Kelly o3.5 Ks, and Phillies ML (+139)