CBB Bets (3/20)
CBB Betting Card for March Madness (3/20)
If you missed my first article, we already cashed UNC -4.5. I still have one bet in that article, which you can check out here. This article is for a couple of bets on the first day of the Round of 64. I do want to say that I have six total bets for this day, but I’m only posting two here. You can get all six by joining my DubClub since there needs to be extra value for subscribers!
Before we get started, I wanted to let you know that you can get ALL of my bets, player props, and brackets via my DubClub. I’ll give y’all 25% off because you’re subbed to my Newsletter.
Get ALL of my CBB bets, player props, and brackets for March Madness here!
Louisville/Creighton o144.5 (-110 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s start with the first game of the Round of 64! We have an elite matchup between 8-seed Louisville and 9-seed Creighton. There are a few reasons why I’m expecting some points here.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is always going to be efficient at the rim. This isn’t the best matchup for him because of the way Louisville plays defense, but he’s a player who will find his. Most importantly, he’ll be efficient when getting his shots off.
Louisville also plays a specific type of defense. They allow their opponents to shoot nearly 40% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. They also struggle quite a bit, allowing their opponents to shoot 33.7% from deep.
Creighton isn’t an elite shooting team as a whole, but they do have a few players who can shoot. Steven Ashworth, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Jackson McAndrew, and Isaac Traudt all shoot 33.3% or better on various volumes.
The Bluejays have also found plenty of success against teams who force their opponents to shoot from deep. Here’s how they’ve scored against teams with a similar defensive strategy as Louisville:
St. John’s - 66, 73
Seton Hall - 79, 79
Georgetown - 80
Villanova - 62, 86
There are mixed results on this list, but there are a couple of aspects that should be added for context. First, St. John’s ranks 1st in the country in defensive efficiency. Seventy-three points is one of the highest totals scored against them on the season. Villanova also plays at one of the slowest paces in the NCAA, so scoring 62 points on the road isn’t a huge concern.
Although Louisville features a reasonable defense, they’re a team that wants to push the pace in their games. We’ve seen them give up 80+ points in certain matchups this season.
On the other side, Louisville is a team that can score well against Creighton. The Bluejays don’t foul, and they generally force their opponents to beat them inside the arc. Louisville loves the deep ball, but they’re shooting 57% from two-point range, which ranks 19th in the NCAA this season.
The other aspect I love about the Cardinals is that they have several players who can score inside the paint but not at the rim. Kalkbrenner’s presence at the rim could be an issue, but Louisville’s ability to find success in the mid-range will be a major factor in this game.
I also fully expect Louisville to push the pace and Creighton will oblige. This game could end up being faster-paced than most expect, and I prefer both offenses to the defenses.
We’re at a point where these teams will need to score in the mid-70s to beat this number, but I believe both teams have the offense to score 80 points in this matchup.
NOTE: I’m not saying both teams will score 80+ points. I’m saying either team can hit that threshold, which would drastically drop the points needed for the other offense.
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Purdue -7.5 (-118 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’ve seen a ton of support for High Point in this game, but I’m not buying it. The only aspect of this game that I truly care about is the level of competition. These two teams aren’t in the same universe on that end.
High Point ranks 296th in the NCAA in strength of schedule. Their toughest game was at home against North Texas. They’re the only team inside the top 100 on KenPom that High Point played this season.
On the other side, Purdue ranks 9th in the country in strength of schedule. Here’s where teams rank and the margin of victory for Purdue against them this season. I’m strictly using teams 50th or worse on KenPom:
Texas A&M-CC (160): 17
Northern Kentucky (233): 22
Yale (73): 8
Marshall (166): 35
NC State (127): 10
Penn State (62): -11
Toledo (235): 19
Minnesota (91): 20
Rutgers (74): 18, 29
Nebraska (55): 36
Washington (107): 11
Iowa (64): 9
USC (63): 18, 5
Purdue has played 15 games against teams that rank 50th or worse on KenPom. They beat the -7.5 spread in 13 of those games. Their only misses were against Penn State (actual loss) and USC, who both rank drastically higher than High Point with much harder schedules.
This isn’t that I hate High Point, and I fully understand that “weird” things happen in the tournament. There are simply levels at the college basketball, and Purdue is drastically above High Point.
It’s also important to note Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer played massive minutes in the NCAA Tournament last season. Other players saw playing time for Purdue, but those two will be leaders in these types of games. It’s tough to imagine a veteran guard as good as Smith is truly in danger of an upset.